Access quarterly macro trends that are important for decision makers in the global technology industry.
The Counterpoint Macro Index tracks monthly the environment and sentiment for the global technology industry.
We cover four main areas: Consumer Sentiment, General Business Sentiment, Tech Sentiment, and Politics & Policy.
We seek to answer questions on macro trends that is important for decision makers in the tech industry, such as
✔ When can we expect inflation rates to normalize?
✔ How much visibility is there for the demand recovery of consumer tech goods?
✔ What stage are we at in the tech downturn?
✔ How are key stakeholders in the tech industry responding to recent geopolitical events?
✔ What areas are being impacted by recent events in the US-China tech war?
Economic data:
• Inflation falling faster than expected in the US and Europe. Interest rates peaked in Q4 2023, with potential rate cuts by mid-2024.
• Continued US consumer strength, supported by a strong job market.
Tech Sentiment:
• Tech outlook continues to improve after earnings season, due to better growth prospects and AI frenzy.
• Much improved semiconductor numbers paving the way for a rebound in consumer electronics in 2024.
International Politics:
• High-level meetings between US and Chinese officials signal a willingness to prevent further fallout.
Domestic politics in the West:
• The US entering a highly combative electoral cycle.
• European governments struggle to contain the rise of far-right and internal disputes.
China:
• Economic data disappoint.
• Souring business and consumer sentiment, with few signs of stimulus measures.
Geopolitical conflict:
• The Russia-Ukraine war drags on. War fatigue could see the West withdraw support for Ukraine.
• The Gaza War risks spreading across the Middle East.
• Supply chains disrupted due to attacks in the Red Sea.
• Recovery accelerated in Q4 2023; Positive momentum to continue through 2024.
• Q4’s one-year forecast has been upgraded from Q3’s due to much better economic numbers.
• Economic data recovery to continue, but global growth prospects are under pressure.
• Main story of recovery due to lower inflation and interest rates to remain intact.
The rise of many secondary risks:
• 2024 is a massive election year: More than half of the world’s population, in more than 50 countries.
• US politics impacting global trade relationships.
• Appetite for consumer tech spending could remain weak, particularly if AI disappoints.
• China facing serious structural issues.
It includes a regional (US, China, Europe) and segment (Consumer, Business, Tech, and Politics & Policy Sentiment) breakdown of the Index, as well as a ‘Risk-Impact Map’ for the biggest macro issues in the short to medium term.
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